for school board Trustee, District G 2014

Erin Cranor believes in our students!

Why?


We must be relentless in our work toward transformation in student success here.  Change must happen as quickly as possible.  We can do this work knowing that it is possible, based on beginnings of success that we are seeing already.  We must do this work with the urgency that is demanded by the challenges our students still face.



Two Big-Picture Examples:


In 2011, we invested in educator training and resources to address crisis-level student failure at the middle school level.  In 2013, Nevada middle school students demonstrated one of the fastest-improving literacy rates in the country.


In 2011, our community and our schools began to rally around high school students who had dropped out of school or were off-track for graduation.  In 2012 and again in 2013, the number of on-time high school graduates in Nevada increased by the hundreds.



Trends in Student Challenges and Success:


Quality Counts "Chance for Success" Indicators, Nevada


Since Erin was elected in 2010, "Chance for Success" indicators of Nevada's families' challenges have generally worsened. In spite of worsening challenges, "Chance for Success" indicators of Kindergarten through 12th grade student success have improved.  We are proving that transformation in student success is possible here!


Here is a key to the list below:

Then = "Chance for Success" ranking indicators published in 2010.

Now = "Chance for Success" ranking indicators published in 2014.

Quality Counts ranks all 50 states plus the District of Columbia.


Here is the list of Quality Counts "Chance for Success" indicators.  These are what make up Nevada's last-place ranking in "Chance for Success."


Family Income: Percent of children in families with incomes at least 200% of poverty level.  National average 2014: 55.0%, down.

Then: 60.4%. Nevada ranked 27th.

Now:  50.6%.  Nevada ranks 37th.


Parent Education: Percent of children with at least one parent with a postsecondary degree.  National average 2014: 46.2%, down.

Then: 33.0%. Nevada ranked 51st.

Now:  32.3%.  Nevada ranks 51st.  


Parental Employment: Percent of children with at least one parent working full time and year-round.  National average 2014: 72.8%, down.

Then: 79.0%. Nevada ranked 19th.

Now:  70.8%. Nevada ranks 37th.


Linguistic Integration: Percent of children whose parents are fluent English-speakers.  National average 2014: 83.3%, down.

Then: 72.3%. Nevada ranked 51st.  

Now:  73.0%. Nevada ranks 49th.


Preschool Enrollment: Percent of 3- and 4-year-olds enrolled in preschool.  National average 2014: 47.7%, up.

Then: 28.7%. Nevada ranked 50th.

Now:  31.7%. Nevada ranks 51st.


Kindergarten Enrollment: Percent of eligible children enrolled in kindergarten programs.  National average 2014: 77.9%, up.

Then: 78.8%. Nevada ranked 6th.

Now:  76.4%. Nevada ranks 32nd.


4th Grade Reading: Percent of 4th grade public school students "proficient" on NAEP.  National average 2014: 34.0%, up.

Then: 24.4%.  Nevada ranked 45th.

Now:  27.3%.  Nevada ranks 45th.


8th Grade Mathematics: Percent of 8th grade public school students "proficient" on NAEP.  National average 2014: 34.4%, up.

Then: 24.8%.  Nevada ranked 43rd.

Now: 28.3%.  Nevada ranks 41st.


High School Graduation: Percent of public high school students who graduate with a diploma (CPI Index). National average 2014: 74.7%, up.

Then: 47.3%.  Nevada ranked 51st.

Now:  62.7%.  Nevada ranks 48th.


Young-Adult Education: Percent of young adults (18-24) enrolled in postsecondary education or with a degree.  National average 2014: 55.8%, up.

Then: 39.2%.  Nevada ranked 50th.

Now:  40.6%.  Nevada ranks 50th.


Adult Educational Attainment: Percent of adults (25-64) with a 2- or 4-year postsecondary degree.  National average 2014: 39.5%, up.

Then: 30.2%.  Nevada ranked 46th.

Now:  30.5%.  Nevada ranks 48th.


Annual Income: Percent of adults (25-64) with incomes at or above national median.  National average 2014: 50.2%, down.

Then: 50.0%.  Nevada ranked 21st.

Now: 46.0%. Nevada ranks 37th.


Steady Employment: Percent of adults (25-64) in labor force working full time and year-round.  National average 2014: 69.8%, down.

Then: 73.6%.  Nevada ranked 23rd.

Now:  66.4%. Nevada ranks 45th.



Quality Counts "K-12 Achievement" Indicators, Nevada


Quality Counts did not publish K-12 Achievement rankings in 2010, but did publish K-12 Achievement rankings in 2011, a few weeks after Erin Cranor first became a trustee.


Since Erin became a trustee in 2011, "K-12 Achievement" indicators of Nevada student success have improved enough to bring Nevada's overall ranking up from 39th in 2011 to 36th in 2014.   


Here is a key to the list below:

Then = "K-12 Achievement" ranking indicators published in 2011.

Now = "K-12 Achievement" ranking indicators published in 2014.

Quality Counts ranks all 50 states plus the District of Columbia.


Here is the list of Quality Counts "K-12 Achievement" indicators. These are what make up Nevada's 36th-place ranking in "K-12 Achievement."

Mathematics Percent Proficient, 4th Grade: Most recent NAEP.  National average 2014: 41.3%, up.

Then: 32.1%. Nevada ranked 42nd.

Now:  34.0%. Nevada ranks 45th.


Mathematics Percent Proficient, 8th Grade: Most recent NAEP.  National average 2014: 34.4%, up.

Then: 24.8%. Nevada ranked 43rd.

Now: 28.3%. Nevada ranks 41st.


Reading Percent Proficient, 4th Grade: Most recent NAEP.  National average 2014: 34.0%, up.

Then: 24.0%. Nevada ranked 46th.

Now: 27.3%.  Nevada ranks 45th.


Reading Percent Proficient, 8th Grade: Most recent NAEP.  National average 2014: 34.3%, up.

Then: 22.4%. Nevada ranked 44th.

Now: 30.3%. Nevada ranks 39th.


Mathematics Scale Score Change, 4th Grade: Most recent NAEP compared to 2003.  National average 2014: +7.2, up.

Then: +7.6. Nevada ranked 14th.

Now: +8.7. Nevada ranks 19th.


Mathematics Scale Score Change, 8th Grade: Most recent NAEP compared to 2003.  National average 2014: +7.5, up.

Then: +6.1. Nevada ranked 20th.

Now: +10.2. Nevada ranks 9th.


Reading Scale Score Change, 4th Grade: Most recent NAEP compared to 2003.  National average 2014: +4.2, up.

Then: +4.2. Nevada ranked 15th.

Now: +6.8. Nevada ranks 9th.


Reading Scale Score Change, 8th Grade: Most recent NAEP compared to 2003.  National average 2014: +4.7, up.

Then: +1.5. Nevada ranked 20th.

Now: +9.4. Nevada ranks 3rd.


Poverty Gap in 4th Grade Reading Scale Score: FRL Noneligible Minus Eligible most recent NAEP.  National average 2014: 28.6, wider.

Then: 19.8.  Nevada ranked 7th narrowest gap.

Now: 26.9.  Nevada ranks 24th narrowest gap.


Poverty Gap in 8th Grade Math Scale Score: FRL Noneligible Minus Eligible most recent NAEP.  National average 2014: 27.2, wider.

Then: 17.2.  Nevada ranked 1st narrowest gap.

Now: 21.1.  Nevada ranks 8th narrowest gap.


Poverty Gap Change in 4th Grade Reading Scale Score: Most recent NAEP compared to 2003.  National average 2014: +.07, wider.

Then: -5.7.  Nevada ranked 4th.

Now: +1.5. Nevada ranks 27th.


Poverty Gap Change in 8th Grade Math Scale Score: Most recent NAEP compared to 2003.  National average 2014: -1.2, narrower.

Then: -2.9.  Nevada ranked 13th.

Now: +1.0. Nevada ranks 27th.


Percent Advanced, 8th Grade Mathematics: Most recent NAEP.  National average 2014: 8.3%, up.

Then: 4.6%.  Nevada ranked 41st.

Now: 5.5%. Nevada ranks 42nd.


Change in Percent Advanced, 8th Grade Mathematics: Most recent NAEP compared to 2003.  National average 2014: +3.4%, up.

Then: +1.9%.  Nevada ranked 29th.

Now: +2.8%.  Nevada ranks 27th.


High School Graduation: All Students, Public Schools, CPI Index for 2010.  National average 2014 (2010 CPI index): 74.7%, up.

Then: 41.8%. Nevada ranked 51st.

Now: 62.7%. Nevada ranks 48th.  *Note this is the CPI for 2010, not the ACGR which is now the standard.


Change in High School Graduation Rate: All Students, Public Schools, Change in CPI since 2000.  National average 2014 (2010 CPI): +7.9%, up.

Then: -13.5.  Nevada ranked 51st.

Now: +7.4%. Nevada ranks 18th.


Advanced Placement: High Test Scores per 100 Students in Public Schools Grades 11 and 12.  National average 2014: 25.7, up.

Then: 16.2.  Nevada ranked 21st.

Now: 15.9.  Nevada ranks 30th.


Advanced Placement Change: Increase in High Test Scores per 100 Students Since 2000.  National average 2014: +16.6, up.

Then: +10.4.  Nevada ranked 19th.

Now:  +10.2.  Nevada ranks 30th.



Challenges versus Successes


Erin Cranor uses data to strategize toward student success by looking for low-impact investments that can be ended, and by looking for what works.  She looks not only for excellence, but also for "beating the odds." 


Here is one example of one way Erin Cranor uses student success data to decide where to look for what works:


Nevada cannot instantly replicate the high parent education levels and other positive Chance for Success factors prevalent in the lives of students in the nation's highest-performing state, Massachusetts.  In fact, out-of-school factors can comprise a fundamental difference between students in Nevada and Massachusetts.  Consider, for example, that students in Nevada with many books in the home score higher on the NAEP than students in Massachusetts with no or few books in the home.  Because of this fundamental difference between students in Nevada and Massachusetts, there are better places than Massachusetts to look for clues to the high-leverage opportunities needed in planning Nevada's own needed transformation in student success.


Two of the rankings published annually in Quality Counts include indicators of student success.  One of the rankings, the Chance for Success Ranking, also includes many indicators of out-of-school family and/or community factors that comprise serious challenges for many Nevada students.  This makes a comparison of the two rankings useful for identifying actual impact, and for deciding where, outside of Nevada, to look for what might work for our own students.  Nevada is one of 21 states that ranks higher in K-12 Achievement than in Chance for Success.  We can learn from other states that also rank better in K-12 Achievement than in Chance for Success, especially those states that are further ahead in K-12 Achievement rankings, compared to their Chance for Success rankings.


We can also learn which states may be less useful for comparison.  If another state's K-12 Achievement ranking is lower than its Chance for Success ranking, this may indicate that the lives of children there are less positively changed by the K-12 schools than they are here in Nevada.  In other words, impact may be lower there.  In Nevada, impact of Kindergarten through 12th-grade education on young people's "chance for success" must increase.


Here are the states that are ranked higher in the 2014 Quality Counts K-12 Achievement ranking than they are in the 2014 Chance for Success ranking, and by how many steps up the rankings.  All states not shown here are either ranked the same or lower in K-12 Achievement than they are in Chance for Success.  Also below are some notes that further offer clues regarding which states are promising places to look for what is working better than in Nevada, and which may not be so promising.


1. Florida, by 25 steps.  32nd in Chance for Success.  7th in K-12 Achievement.

2. Georgia, by 21 steps.  38th in Chance for Success.  17th in K-12 Achievement.

3. Texas, by 19 steps.  40th in Chance for Success.  21st in K-12 Achievement.

4. Kentucky, by 17 steps.  36th in Chance for Success.  19th in K-12 Achievement.

5. Indiana, by 15 steps. 27th in Chance for Success.   12th in K-12 Achievement.

6. Nevada, by 15 steps.  51st in Chance for Success.  36th in K-12 Achievement.

7. Washington, by 14 steps.

8. Idaho, by 14 steps.

9. Maine, by 12 steps.

10. Ohio, by 10 steps.

11. Tennessee, by 10 steps.  *However, TN's reading poverty gaps are wider than NV's, and widening, and it is also behind NV in Advanced Math and Advanced Placement.

12. California, by 9 steps.  *However, CA ranks only 33rd in K-12 Achievement; CA is lower in some indicators of student success, and poverty gaps there are wider.

13. Arizona, by 9 steps.  *However, AZ ranks 38th in K-12 Achievement, lower than Nevada.

14. Arkansas, by 8 steps. *However, AR ranks 37th in K-12 Achievement, lower than Nevada.

15. North Carolina, by 7 steps.

16. Maryland, by 6 steps.  Maryland is ranked 2nd in the nation in K-12 Achievement.

17. Pennsylvania, by 5 steps.  Pennsylvania is ranked 8th in the nation in K-12 Achievement.

18. Montana, by 5 steps.

19. Oklahoma, by 2 steps. *However, OK ranks 41st in K-12 Achievement, lower than Nevada.

20. New Mexico, by 2 steps.  *However, NM ranks 48th in K-12 Achievement, lower than Nevada.

21. Colorado, by 1 step. 


States that may be the very least promising places to look for what works are states that neither "beat the odds" by ranking higher in K-12 Achievement than in Chance for Success, nor rank higher than Nevada in K-12 Achievement.  These least-promising states and their K-12 Achievement rankings are:


Missouri, at 39th

Oregon, at 40th

Michigan, at 42nd

South Dakota, at 43rd

Alaska, at 44th

South Carolina, at 45th

Alabama, at 46th

West Virginia, at 47th

Louisiana, at 49th

District of Columbia, at 50th

Mississippi, at 51st



Collaborate, Share Insights, and Vote!


What do you see in these data?  What low-impact investments of time and money can we discard to make way for smarter investment in what works for student success?  What have you witnessed over the past few years that you see as key to the momentum that is building in student success here? 


For example, consider this: fine arts and athletics are still robust in our schools here, and additional individualized opportunities, like robotics competitions and computer coding, are growing.  Are our student success victories so far in spite of not cutting these opportunities during the recession, or because these opportunities are still available to students and growing? 


More questions to consider: What role will you play in student success going forward?  Have you experienced success in one of the necessary business operations in which the school district must excel, like facility maintenance or technology infrastructure?  If so, are you willing to donate your expertise to help transform our school district?  Will you become a mentor to one of our students?  Will you become a collaborative partner with one of our school principals?   Will you help make us much better at engaging parents in student learning?  How will you impact student success?


Erin is eager to collaborate in planning strategies for transformative student success here in Nevada, and in connecting community and student success.  She welcomes your insights into the challenges and failures we are still experiencing here, and she invites your energy and expertise in solving and overcoming them.  Erin will be satisfied with nothing less than transformation in student success. 


Please share your insights with her at ErinCranor2014@gmail.com, and please vote for Erin Cranor for Trustee, District G to continue her results-driven hard work for student success.




Sources:  Visit Education Week  for Quality Counts and the National Center for Education Statistics for NAEP results.